0:00 Like one of the AI's company is going to be the next Bitcoin. So all of those companies are flying up. Some of those companies are going to for sure fail and die. Somebody's also for sure going to win. Yeah. >> There's going to be a big five. >> Yeah, can you pick the winner? Mhm. >> That's all the That's exactly it. Welcome back to another episode of The Careful Boy where oh no guys, the bull run is over. Oh. The Bitcoin go down. >> The whole boat, do you admit it? Uh I don't think I don't think it's over. Are you playing a bit right now? No, no bit. No bit. I don't think it's over. Some say it's going to go past 100k at the end of this month. We've seen five months now of non-stop bleed. We have not seen five months of non-stop bleed ever before. And what does that mean? It's just unusual. So I don't buy that it's completely cooked yet. Like Do you
0:52 think there's a a possibility it runs back up? It runs right back up, yeah. But but don't you think now that since everyone knows who Satoshi is, it's just Epstein, that everyone's just like ah I'm not going to do it. >> Well, exactly. I mean, how many times have I heard that that crypto's over by the way? It's It's every four years I hear the same thing. So It looks pretty over. Well, exactly. And that's when you should be buying. You should be buying the bleed. >> That's what happened last time with the when it dropped to 17 20k or whatever. Yep. I think what he's talking about, not the four-year cycle, he's talking about the actual bull run, right? Oh, the bull run. It's never It's technically never over cuz there's those four-year cycles, but then for this specific bull run that everyone's banking on. >> of four-year cycles is over. Mhm. People are saying that? No, I know they're saying it, but it literally played out to the four-year cycle. Like we saw a top in October of the third year, which is what we usually see, right? And then the fourth
1:43 year is when you go down. So this would that actually lines up with the four-year cycle. It's just what what was different is that the the the money never rotated into Ethereum and alts. Not significantly. It was just Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin. So that was like part of why the market has had such negative sentiment because all just bled out against Bitcoin, yeah. And in the small alt season that we had last run, it felt like that was it. Yeah, and we really opened the run early, if you remember, with alts running against Bitcoin hard, and then after the halving, that completely disappeared. And then alts started bleeding like crazy against Bitcoin, so. Okay, without getting too overly meta into just cryptocurrency, um it's a really [clears throat] really interesting time in the entire finance sector as well, right? Like stocks are going crazy right now. Like the everybody thinking maybe the AI shift in
2:33 the bubble might be popping. So, tech stocks have gone down significantly. Uh we're talking about gold and silver that hit all-time highs in the craziest way, and then also did like a near 30% drop in a single day, which is insane. Uh rumors about, you know, the idea that Fed Jerome Powell is going to step down in May, and then the person who's newly appointed by Donald Trump uh might change the sentiment. There there's a lot of that stuff. >> That's not even a rumor. That's just like a fact. Like Well, at least that being like a giant catalyst for market sell-offs and stuff like that. >> Yeah, I think that already happened because that guy is super into interest rate cutting, and and then people went, "Oh, ████ Like I'm going to sell my precious metals then." Yeah. So, but the entire sec like financial sector is just like all over the place right now. It's really hard to put your thumb on like what you're supposed to do. What's the right thing to do? Like what what do It's the same thing. Dollar cost average. DCA, baby. Supposed to do it up
3:24 and down. >> bleed. Yeah, all no matter how good it is or how s█████ it is, you're always supposed to DCA. But I also think like there's levels to this game, right? Cuz like people be talking about life-changing money when they only have a thousand dollars to invest. And I'm like uh dude, well, you could either go hella ████ degen and risky, and you might have the major gains, or you can DCA, dollar cost average, meaning, you know, you have a specific amount in your budget every single month, and you put that toward uh your stocks and usually what people do is safe investments first, index funds or you know, they go to mutual not mutual funds. What do you call it? >> ETFs. ETFs. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which is like all of the safe stocks but you get to own a bunch in one. Look, if I only have a thousand dollars to invest, if I make a hundred dollars,
4:14 that is life-changing money. That literally just changed my life. 10% change. >> Yes. That's pretty huge. >> are trying to be billionaires off a thousand dollars. So when people, I'm like, you got to you got to build your moat around your castle first before you make the attack. >> I also do think people that have that approach is the wrong approach and that's what they get them in trouble. Cuz that's almost saying like I'm when the gym is on sale, I'm going to work out eight hours that day and then when the gym is back to normal price, I'm not going to train at all. And the whole point of regardless if you have ten dollars to invest or ten million is to build the right habits so you're making the right decisions over time. And I think a lot of people are trying to turn a thousand dollars into a billion. >> Yeah. And so you're just gambling. And then that's the same thing as fitness, like you're not going to get a six-pack
5:04 in a eight-hour workout. You get a six-pack over four, five, six months or whatever, you know. That's basically all Vietnamese people in California, by the way. Exactly. All buy the California Super Lotto. >> All these moves people are talking about, right? That's like billionaire moves. They're at a different level. So it's like everyday people, they should just be doing, hey, max out your IRA. Do all the they do all the normal ████ cuz you're not they're in a different game. Yeah. They're trying to spec they're like playing like like how do I ████ speculate this move and then like I'mma put I'mma put like a a hundred million and move the market and then they're going to come up and cash out before your dumb ass gets in because you're like, oh, I'mma follow Warren Buffett. He already made his ████ moves. So it's like what when we get the news that's just too late. >> Yeah, when everyone's talking about buying it, too, you're it's over, dude. That's not the time to buy it.
5:54 >> What would you say to those who are able to invest, I mean 70 bucks? A month? Exactly. How risky do you want to play it? Exactly. Like cuz cuz I like to do like I like to do the altcoin game because it's it's you can take a small amount of money and then you can really run it up high, but you have to see that as like that money's gone as soon as you put it in because you just don't know what could happen. >> That's all I've seen. ████ out of here. >> well, you have to you have to do all that. You have to know what you're buying and and that that way if it goes down 95% you still see the opportunity in it because you know that they're still building. But if if it's a fugazi coin that they're not doing anything then I like to stay away from those. So, it's it's just up to your risk profile always. But 70 bucks that's that's straight up sports betting or like black and red. That's that's where I'm going with 70 bucks. >> [laughter] >> That's all I'm doing.
6:45 Damn, man. Yeah, I always uh like I I definitely hear about those and then uh trades, too, I hear about trades. Is that the similar like situation? >> is gambling in in my opinion. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm starting to get into options trading. That's that's different. >> What is that? What is that? What is that? >> It's honestly uh I'm just starting to get into it, but it's tough, man. It's tough. It's a lot of information that can get really really overwhelming unless you use like intro ████ on like Robinhood or whatever. But basically the whole concept of options trading >> Cuz DCA is just too boring for you? Well, no, I'm I'm still doing DCA and stuff like that, but short answer, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Sometimes you just want >> to gamble. It's the Vietnamese side. >> I'm yeah, the Vietnamese side of me, the Vietnamese California side. All I've been taught by my mom is that hey, man, all we got to do is live below our means, relatively poor or lower class the whole time, but if we hit once, our lives are forever changed. And that that
7:36 stuck with me. Um she's still she's still buying a lot of tickets. My mom buys a lot of tickets, and then when it's like the giant power ball ones where it's like for sure a lot of money, she she'll send me a photo of the ticket and then she'll write all of our family members' names on it. That's cute. Hell yeah. When this hits, just so you know, it's for all four of us. Yeah. I'm like, that's ████ thoughtful that you spent your 20 bucks like that. Yeah, it's her thing. Never worked yet, but But even with options trading, you're basically just it's like futures, right? You're just selling calls or puts on the idea of I think in by the end of the day, I think in 7 days, I think in 3 months, the stock price will be this. And then you might be like selling a contract or buying a contract that says, "Hey, if the price drops to here, I'll pay you a premium to let me buy all your stock at this amount." So, it's just a bunch of like That's why when you hear about like, "Hey, a bunch of like these
8:27 many contracts expired on this day." It's like $7 billion in contracts expired. It's like the the contract possibility of $7 billion. It's not like actual that much money is moving here or there. It's people either getting wiped out on their bad bets or it's people like having to sell their ████ because they didn't know it was going to go there or whatever, or having to buy 100 shares. And then with those contracts, they're 100 shares at a time. So, you can't even do an options trade if you only have like 40 shares or something. You have to You have to have, if you're leveraging a specific contract, you have to have a 100 shares of a thing. So, like >> certain budget >> Yeah, you got like every technical contract is like you could be anywhere from like two to 15,000 dollars depending on what you're signing a contract on. So, So, it's it's a lot, but it's Are you playing with it where you like you don't even do it, you just back test it in like a paper trades? So,
9:18 I'm still just working on paper trades because like >> That's smart. >> Well, the thing is the second I was about to do a real options trade, everything went ballistic in the market, and now I'm just scared s███████ because I'm like, "Dude, what if I suddenly, without enough money and with a baby on the way, I have to buy 100 shares something at a lower price cuz I thought it wasn't going to hit that?" >> paper trades in fourth grade. Did you guys ever do that? Like as a class, we'd have a newspaper and you'd be like, "Okay, what's your favorite brand?" I'm like, "Big 5. I love Big 5. I'm going to buy five shares of it." And at the end of the year, you'd be like, "Ah, ████ it. Went up $2." >> [laughter] >> Oh, damn. >> remember that. Remember that? >> Yeah. I also hated it at that time, though, so it's different. >> Now I'm like, "Why didn't I pay more attention? Teachers trying to teach us some s███." >> Why would they teach you that in fourth grade? What the ████ is wrong with them? >> That's true. So, in y'all's day-to-day, like, how often are y'all in invested in investing? Like the like this world of DCA and all this stuff. Like, is it something you look at daily, end of
10:08 week, end of month? >> deposit it and they manage it. I don't [clears throat] ████ do no stocks. Like, as in like active stocks. Okay. But, I think um yeah, if you're really into it, like he's like hella into it. So, he's trade Yeah. But, there's different levels to it where you can day trade, but what Bart's talking about is like you have an account and then you deposit it and then um you know, you're buying all the boring stuff. The most It's called blue chip, like the big companies that are probably going to keep staying around for the next 20, 30 years. And then you just wait on that. And I think that's one of the It's It's one of the best ways for I think uh if you're poor, middle class, and cuz before when we were growing up, we couldn't invest. You had to have like a like a a a account manager. You had to be a part And every trade, you got to pay money. So, you got to be kind of
10:58 like already wealthy to to play the game. Now you got like hella apps and ████ and you could be working at Burger King all day. And then, let's say half of your paycheck, you know, you still live at home, you're a teenager, you could put that ████ on Robinhood or whatever. And I I I show all my employees this. I'm like, "Look at what compound interest can get you. By the time you're ████ 30 years old, you have a couple hundred grand." And that's on minimum wage, just putting money in every day. Yeah. >> Every week. And then, you know, when you're when you're 18, 19, you go, "30? That's too long, bro." Right. Right. But like, you know what I mean? Like >> Dirty, man. If I had that opportunity, ████ I'd probably blow all the money by the time I'm 21. Yeah. But then still, like I'm like that's a that's a great thing people are sleeping on right now. >> I think one of the some of the best advice I ever got was follow your dollar. Where like you know, for
11:48 example, like say 20 years ago, you you kept going to Chipotle a bunch. And then you kind of go, oh yeah, I should probably buy Chipotle stock cuz like I go to this place all the time. I'm literally helping them in my own small way. Like it's a good product that I really like. Why wouldn't I own their stock? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's like follow your dollar. Like if you're spending money on something, you should buy stock in it. I'm heavy into ████ Home Depot. There you go. I use Home Depot all the time. >> There you go. I think I go Home Depot like every month. You should You should be buying milk stock. >> [laughter] >> Get into cows. Yeah, cows. I do I do think it's uh yeah, I'm definitely in that boat. I definitely wish I would have learned more about it sooner. Yeah, yeah. Cuz it just would have made just time. Boring. Yeah, it's so Boring. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. But but I will say the more I've learned about it, the more I got into it, uh it changed my daily
12:38 lifestyle. Cuz then like now instead of like flossing out with like the sickest new like gear or some ████ I'm like, damn, I could have just bought like a whole other stock with that. And so it's it's now just reverting where I would choose to blow my money. Even if I lose it on the stock, there's this I still have the stock even if it went down. Yeah, yeah. >> up later. Whereas like, you know, buying on like a fresh pair of kicks or something like that, it's like it's not the same game. Yeah, yeah. When did you first hear about Bitcoin? Uh I think whenever when we all heard about it. >> 20 It was like I probably say like uh maybe like 20 2016, 2017. Oh, yeah, I think a lot of us the same same time. Hella early. Cuz of this ████ right here. >> Yes, sir. But yeah, I think like I got into it in 20 2012, 2013. I remember when it was a thousand dollars. Crazy. Yeah. 2012. Is there Is there something that's out now that is at a thousand
13:29 dollars that >> that could be the next Bitcoin? There's a lot of those, man. There's a lot of them. >> Everything and nothing at the same time. Like for example, like you you know about like the dot com bubble, right? Where like this is like AOL was huge, Yahoo, you know, the ████ Neo what Netscape or whatever like all these different like dot com stuff was like growing, right? And it's like we knew the internet was changing the world. That's kind of like right now is like the AI conversation, right? AI's for sure going to be something. Like one of the AI's companies is going to be the next Bitcoin. playing it. So all of those companies are flying up. Some of those companies are going to for sure fail and die. Somebody's also for sure going to win. There's going to be a big five. Yeah, can you pick the winner? That's all the That's exactly it. And then 30 years from now if you did pick the winner, you're going to be like, I was a genius.
14:19 It's like, ████ you could have picked all of them and nine of them failed. >> Wait, it only takes one. It only takes one. Like you can invest in like you can invest in a hundred all coins, right? But if one of them hits, you it's going to hit hard. Like like And you're going to be and then in retrospect, you're going to be a genius for having just risked the game. But you have to look at it like this is something that I'm putting the money in and it's gone. You can't do this ████ to yourself where you're like, I need this back. If you do that, you're going to ████ yourself up. That's what that's what it was for me on when I did I did Acorns. Right? Acorn and I and I don't even know like I remember Acorn. Acorn app where like rounds up your your purchases. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Buy something for like 97 cents, Acorn turns into a dollar transition. And then it's three cents. >> and it was generally something it was genuinely something that I like forgot
15:09 that I did. And I'm just like, you know, whatever. But and then there was a time where like it was even like that the app was like, you know, in the cloud like I had to redownload. That's how long I was like, let me just see what that was. And I had like 600 bucks in there and instead of being like oh just let that do that thing I needed all that ████ I just bought [laughter] it. Give me all that. And I was like this is amazing I was telling everybody about it like yo you should do it but I I if I if it like that was and I saw that in like a 2018 situation. You know what I mean? Like if I still would want to know like what that was. >> true beauty of investing though is if you can set aside money a amount of money that doesn't affect you at all and if you do it at a regular basis they're supposed to surprise yourself. Dude I remember me and Joe doing this money masters thing years ago and in it
15:59 I was getting in arguments with people cuz I still like crypto and everyone saying crypto was dead and I was trying I was like you should get ethereum it's 80 bucks right now and they're like that's ████ like you don't understand it's so dead and all this ████ and then yeah and then it went to two grand with the three grand and that would have been like the best investment of your life but everyone was so certain it's dead and it's just like now everyone just knows it's dead cuz everyone's saying it's dead big echo chamber bouncing around with the same ████ dialogue so yeah I mean it's opportunity if you choose to see it that way. >> Yeah. >> You had bitcoin at a thousand even if you dip it dip to 60,000 or whatever it's still not dead for you. Exactly. >> it at a thousand. >> Well it's dead for me now. >> [laughter] >> It's dead to you. Yeah it's dead to you.
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