0:00 So, it's like I don't have a mill right now. I don't have a 100 mill right now. But, if I'm given the opportunity, I'll rather take the risk. And then my life doesn't even change that much. >> you didn't hit the 100 mill, what do you think your brain would tell you? That was a fun game. >> [laughter] >> Built different, right? >> What what did you That was a fun game. Welcome back to another episode of Careful Boys. This is an interesting topic that was going around. I thought you guys would have really good opinions on it, but you have to justify your opinion. Okay? Uh what would you take? A million dollars or 50% chance at 100 million dollars? Holy ████ that's it? Just someone comes up to you, "Hey, you could either have
0:51 50% chance at a >> Yeah, you you Basically, it's you flip a coin for 100 million or take a million guaranteed. FLIP A COIN! [screaming] >> [laughter] >> I'LL GO WITH THE MILLION. REALLY? I knew you'd pick a million. Okay. All right. >> Well, why would you flip a coin? Why would you flip a coin? >> I feel like I could make a million. That's why. Oh. You're like, "Well, give me enough time, I could make a million." Fine. But, um 100 million >> your only chance at 100 million? Because that Yeah, like I I don't Well, I I don't I mean, making 100 million is such a huge gap from making a million. You you you would weigh it against what are your chances of making 100 million on your own. If it's less than 50, you might want to take the coin flip. Yeah, I'll take the I'll take the coin flip. Because also, it's like maybe I can in my lifetime when I'm 80.
1:42 Like, as as everything kind of gets to a certain point, but that means I'm working my ass off until I'm 80, right? A million, it's like I could probably get that in 5 years if I work hard and then figure out make the right moves, maybe even less. But like, yeah, it's like I don't know. But yeah, You'll flip the coin. >> Flip the coin, 100%. >> Oh, okay. And then why would you take the guaranteed mill? I go based off of my feelings of how I would feel like post after the fact. >> Oh. >> So if I go, obviously I think if you win a million, right? You walk away you go, ████ Should I have flipped the other coin, right? You're like, damn. But then I'm like, but then I think you're still like, oh ████ I got a million. If I go and take the other route, I miss it. On my way HOME I'M LIKE, ████ I COULD HAVE GOT THE ████ MILLION. WHAT THE
2:32 ████ AM I DOING? [laughter] WHY DO I HAVE ZERO ████ DOLLARS, you ████ idiot? That's So I'm like, I'm trying to weigh the feelings. [laughter] And then so I'm weighing the drive home. That's That's what I'm weighing. >> That's true, yeah. Because that could just give you a new depression you've never known. If you land the hundred, for sure, dude. That's exactly what I mean. >> a hundred, you're like, right? But then if you lose it, you're like, I had a ████ million dollars. What the ████ did I just do? Damn. [laughter] That's what I think about. >> What would you do? >> I take the million. You take the million, okay. All right. As much as I try to weigh it out in my head, I feel like it's like a it's like a greed trick. You know what I'm saying? It's like It's like IT'S A TWO-SIDED [laughter] COIN. YOU CAN'T WIN. GOT IT. YEAH, FOR SURE, for sure. But if it's a guaranteed mill, like, you know, it's still you can still do a lot with that, you know? You can still do a lot with that. You can It'll probably change your life if you get that. Yeah. 100 million might
3:24 change your life, but also there's the other side of that, like I'm sure there's some crazy stuff that can happen if you become a hundred millionaire, dude. Maybe you're already you're getting invited to islands. >> [laughter] >> It is kind of scary, huh? It feels like too much. It's like I feel like that question is always a test of like like kind of how greedy people can be, and they go, oh, like but that's right there. And then they're they're turning their back on something that in any other instance, if that wasn't there, they would pick that every time, right? You know, so I don't know. I I I think it's like a and it goes back to what Bart says. It's like that's I can't help but to feel if you didn't get either gun in your mouth. >> [laughter] >> Wait, does anyone have a coin? Does anyone here have a coin? Yeah, I got a coin. Can can we flip a coin? And let's let's imagine that we did the coin flip.
4:14 >> I mean, I don't have my body back. Let's imagine we did the coin flip. >> Yeah, and then what would you do? Would you coin flip or would Well, you have to you have to say your answer first. I would pick the mill. Oh, ████ >> Because because I only have extremely good luck when it has nothing to do with money. I have horrible luck with money, but but if I had a mill, I would just split that off into different investments and then I'd play my gambling that way. >> 100% 100%. That's the game. >> Which is nice, which is nice, but I don't think a mill is Okay, so like if it was five, I'd probably take five instead of 100 mill. Oh, okay. So your your buyout rate is just higher. I just feel like a mill is too achievable where if I don't take the opportunity for 100 mill, I would be the opposite of Bart and going, "What if What if What if I actually hit that 100 mill?" Cuz I know
5:05 with with a it's just a matter of time till I could get a mill like in you know, if I work for it. >> The crazy way that I'm looking at it is that yeah, maybe with hard work I could also make that mill, but I don't think I'll ever make an extra mill, if that makes sense. I don't think on top of that mill. >> I mean? Like as you make money, those that money spoken for. Like you already have purposes for it. But if someone just gave you a mill, that's bonus on top of what you're using to live already. So then you could play with it. >> laundry money like >> Yeah, yeah. Oh, what is this million? [laughter] How much more secure do you get? >> You could play it in more fun ways. >> Maybe because I feel pretty content, so I feel like an extra mill isn't going to change that much. Like it might make things a little bit faster and easier, but it won't change that much for me to where I rather just go balls out cuz I don't
5:55 have either anyway. So it's like I don't have a mill right now. I don't have a 100 mill right now. But if I'm given the opportunity, I'll rather take the risk. And then my life doesn't even change that much. >> you didn't hit the 100 mill, what do you think your brain would tell you? That was a fun game. >> [laughter] >> But that's built different, bro. >> What would you do? What would you do? That was a fun game. >> think about it, right? I've already done this. Like if you if you just think about how like like my personality is. You know how you If you said you don't have a mill, wouldn't getting a mill change a lot? Uh maybe 10 years ago. Damn. Well, I mean like I'll I'll give you an example, a real-life example is I I did have that with crypto, which I had 1.6 mill, and it basically just evaporated, and maybe I had like 100k,
6:46 right? Um and I don't think that I reacted appropriately to how maybe a lot of other people would feel that loss. So like the number isn't Yeah. I just think I'm wired different in a way where I like money, but but I feel like certain numbers It's like this. Like if you if you could make 100 bucks, you know you can make 100 bucks, it doesn't really change. And then like yeah, it would make life a little bit easier, but then it doesn't really help me if um I use it in a way or I where I make life too easy to where I'm no longer learning. So like there's certain things like that, right? >> The risk of it. >> Yeah. But then I I feel pretty happy with life in a way where um everything just feels like extra, and I don't need more to feel a
7:37 certain way. So I think that's the biggest thing. If it was 5 mill to me, I'd probably feel like, okay, I could do something with this in a in a life-changing way. Uh 10 years ago, I I probably hit the mil. Cuz if the question was a hundred thousand, I think I'll still take THE HUNDRED THOUSAND. WOW. WELL, YEAH, cuz it's like a guaranteed But what if for a hundred thousand, you is 75% chance of getting a hundred mil? 75% chance? Oh. >> to flip that coin. That's crazy. That's Those odds are too good. That's pretty good. Cuz they'd have to make it up somewhere. >> It's different, man. See if I I win a hundred mil, all right. Tails, BABY. LET'S GO. >> ALL RIGHT, so you say tails. >> Is it a straight flip or straight catch and flip? Is it just straight flip? Okay, let it drop. LET IT DROP. TAILS, BABY. WHAT IS IT?
8:28 TAILS. >> [laughter] >> NO. NO, BUT HUNDRED [screaming] MIL. >> HE DID IT. HE DID IT. YEAH, DAMN. All right. Bring out the hundred million. I'm imagining I picked heads and I put it all on this. Tails. See what I mean? When it comes to money, dude, I have to take the hundred thousand But I thought YOU GUYS WERE DOING a coin flip. Okay. What up? No, I'm taking I'm taking the million. But just to see just to see if you would have got it. If you would have got it. >> I'll go I'll go with heads. But you can't COLLECT ON IT. >> [screaming] >> BUT YOU ONLY HAVE A HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS. >> [laughter] >> I SAY HEADS. HEADS? TAILS. BRO, me and you, dude. That's why we know, brother. I don't go to the casino for that REASON. >> HEY, MAYBE MAYBE I I I feel lucky, so I
9:18 always like do it. >> [laughter] >> That's true. I have bad coin luck. I have really bad fifty-fifty luck. >> Yeah. I don't like playing >> You know like when you plug a USB in, I get it wrong the first time every single time. When it could just be like this. >> like ████ it. Nobody saw that, right? >> [laughter] >> But now with USB-C, hell yeah. Or HDMI, same thing. God damn it. I thought I looked at it first. I have bad 50/50 luck. Damn, dude, you could have 100 mil. 100 mil now, guys. >> [laughter] >> See, that's the odds is that one of our friends is going to get 100 mil. We're good. >> But then how fitting is it that the guy who picked that is the one who wouldn't be that, you know, like 100 mil, that's okay. 1 mil, it's okay. Whatever. The worst is not getting anything. That's the what you want to avoid, I think. But that's what could have happened to me. Right. >> Or were you guys still get a mil and you're happy because you got to >> But you'd be generally unbothered. Like
10:09 walking away from that. I think getting a mil would make me feel awesome, especially when I'm in tight places cuz I get into tight places all the time because of the way I manage money and ████ >> Yeah. So like if I'm ever need to take out a loan because of this or whatever, then yeah, I get to I wish I had a mil right now because you know, like it's good for rainy days, right? But then I also know myself and I'm like even if I did have a mil, it's probably going to be not in my bank account. >> If I missed out on a guaranteed mil because I flipped the coin for 100 mil and didn't get it, I would think about that for the rest of my life. >> Really? >> YEAH, FOR SURE. [laughter] I WOULD BE UP AT NIGHT GOING, ████ ME. You Okay, you did crypto with us, right? >> Barely. >> Yeah, but okay, but you took a loss, too. Yeah. >> think about that? No, that was like
10:59 seven $7,000. Yeah, but you lost it. You could have used it for so many different >> But you But then it helps that you guys lost so much for me to feel better about it. >> [laughter] >> So with that example, I do. And I'm >> I still think about it. >> And I'm a very retrospective guy. >> Yeah. So the first time I got into crypto is with OMG, right? I lost money. So if I get in again, >> How much did you lose on OMG? Um so I guess it would be like unrealized losses could have been like 200 grand. Dude. Cuz it was I put in 100, went up to 300. That's when Joe was almost at 900. We could have all cashed out, but like to the moon. Then it drops all the way down, but I didn't cash out. So, I didn't cash out. It went all the way down. Then I rebought back in when I think OMG was like ████ like 10 cents or something. I'm like, "Oh ████ here's my chance to buy my losses back." So, I ended up uh breaking even. And I'm okay, cool. So, I
11:49 really like try to understand like what were my feelings with FOMO, emotions, all that at the time, and I felt like I also didn't know enough. So, the second uh the second uh cycle comes around. Um I think I might have doubled my my crypto stack cuz I want to get better every single time. And then uh that's when I also started After this one, I read the book uh The Bitcoin Standard, and I really started like understanding, okay, maybe I don't know too much about all coins. If I knew as much as Steve, I would, but I don't. So, I'll just stick to the the basics. And then the third this third cycle was the first time I made money in crypto. So, it took pretty much 12 years, right? Cuz it was a 4-year cycle. But this time I felt really studied, and I was able to pretty much 4x my money. So, for me, like I still think back about those moves, not only how they apply to each other, but also even how I I apply those principles to now uh real estate and also stocks. Yeah,
12:39 that's what you're supposed to do is learn from your experience, right? And then I'm not I'm not taking an impulsive approach of just I'm doing this for fun. We're talking about a coin flip, which is completely different from an investment strategy. But I think what I don't do is I don't um hold on to this like I let the energy and baggage of feeling FOMO, loss, all those things to help me learn for next time. Rather than like I'm still going to take risks, right? Cuz I'm not It's not going to scare me from taking risks. Cuz I what what I don't want to do, and shout-outs to Hannah because she's amazing at this, and she goes, "You make You have good predictions." So, it's like we we we predicted matcha early. We did all these things early, right? So, she's like, "But a lot of the things that were not
13:29 foreseen to you at the time is like that's what you got to learn about next time. So, it's like for example, some people will be disillusioned after that and go I'm never investing ever again. Yeah. Because I got burnt, right? So, some people might do this and go I'm never going to do crypto ever again because I lost, right? So, but in Bart's case it's like the intelligent thing to do is now you lost a battle, but you didn't lose the war. How do I go back into battle and re-strategize? And I think that's the that's the approach that I take. So, it's not it's not so much I'm going to be risk averse. I still think I'm going to go for things that um have good potential upside, whatever, but then like I'm not going to do the same thing. I think it's the this example it's so low-IQ and very instant where someone's just giving you a million bucks or you
14:19 could flip a coin. So, there's it's a no skill issue. It's just you'll look back at the decision and be like ████ >> [laughter] >> Cuz it's so like within that tiny moment, yeah. >> But I think it's situations, too. So, like let's say if I was in a tight spot, I'll take the million. Oh, yeah? You know what I mean? It's like if if I didn't own a home, if I didn't have any backups, you know, if I didn't have a business, I don't have a If I also there's earning potential. So, like if you know that um you hit a ceiling in how much you can earn. Like for example, let's say you manage uh In-N-Out, right? And then you're making 100K and you don't have any other skills or any other things and you know that's your maximum, then it's probably a good idea for you to take the mill. Yeah. Because even though it's a great job, great benefits, it's like life-changing money for you. So, I think it's dependent on maybe like your
15:09 threshold for how much more you got in the tank for work, how much more you want to do in life and let's see if you want to retire, if you're in a stage of I just want to chill, maybe you'll take the mill and be like I don't want to do more ████ you know? Whereas like I just think it's there's many factors to where that mill is different depending on where you are in life. I'll take five mil. One more flip. One more flip. Go go go go. TAILS NEVER FAILS. TAILS BABY TAILS. TAILS TAILS. GOD DAMN IT. ████ SEE. SEE WHAT I MEAN? NO BUT it but it hit your it hit it hit your Crocs. It hit your Crocs. Yeah you got to do it again. Tails tails. Tails tails tails tails tails tails tails never fails. TAILS NEVER FAILS. AH. IT HIT A CORNER. OH AND THREE. OH and three that's what I mean. Give me the mill. Give me the hundred thousand. Give me eight dollars. Give me a shovel. This
16:00 Yeah. [laughter] Shovel with no motor.
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